Faced with images of Russian war crimes in Ukraine, pressure is growing on the European Union to adopt a fifth package of sanctions against Moscow. A new list of products for which export and import from the EU will be banned is expected in the middle of the week. But on the table there are heavier measures, namely the embargo of gas, oil and coal, but also the closure of ports to Russian ships and goods. The European acceleration could start with new measures on oil, which could be implemented in a shorter time than those on gas.
«The images just seen reveal unforgivable crimes, unacceptable even in war tragedies. We need a strong and unified response from Europe ”, commented Romano Prodi in an interview with Repubblica. «We are in great need of their gas, there is no doubt about that. But the Russians really need to sell it. Besides the fact that if they were to turn off the tap, it would take a long time to reopen it. And for them it would be suicide. Large plants don’t work with a switch. Look at our Adriatic: it could take a lot of energy, but it will take a year and a half to restart the extraction ».
The former prime minister says that «when I was in government, given the limits of internal production, I set the goal of maximum diversification of purchases, given that all states were problematic. At the time, for example, analysts pointed to Algeria as the most risk-prone. My priority was to be as independent as possible, but the general Italian context did not allow it. There was a referendum on nuclear power, hydroelectricity did what it could. Work has been done on renewable energies, but with obviously not conclusive results. In conclusion, it continued to depend on abroad. Moreover, on the part of all the purchasing countries, the freedom of the market was preferred to the existing long-term contracts, which guaranteed the security of supply even if at slightly higher prices. For a while this worked in our favor, then the market went crazy to the top and we are paying dearly for it. Now we urgently need other suppliers. I welcome the American offer to increase the export of gas to Europe, but American producers are selling it at a market price which is now very high. I hope it will be an opportunity to obtain energy in a more diversified and managed way ».
Now, if one were to really convert the gas payment into rubles, “apparently” it would be “a revolution,” he explains. But «in practice it is an instrument of Russian internal politics, for the control and strengthening of the ruble. As well as being a sign of greater sovereignty, of course. The interlocutor remains Gazprombank which has been excluded from our sanctions, to avoid being throttled. You will simply continue to pay the same bank in euros, which will change them into rubles, in a more complex way and controlled by the Russian government. If it were truly revolutionary, the price of gas would have skyrocketed. But this did not happen”.
While China, according to Prodi, is “buying time. It can be deduced from the concept that is always repeated: Russia is a friend, but the borders are sacred and do not touch each other. The two are not together. Of course, the most cynical say that China is waiting to figure out who wins. And after all, between buying time and waiting, there isn’t much difference. However, it must be taken into account that on the one hand China and Russia are allies, but on the other hand China has a turnover with the United States and Europe ten times higher than that with Russia. The question is not irrelevant given the importance that Xi Jinping has always given to growth. An importance that cannot be neglected especially in view of the upcoming congress of the Communist Party next November ».
And what can Europe do in all this? “These tragic events must push Europe to prepare its future security, starting from foreign and defense policy”, Prodi replies. “Germany’s choice to increase military spending is a historical fact. But if Germany goes on alone, and Italy too and the others do the same, Europe loses a great opportunity: to have a common foreign and defense policy. In the coming months, the real propitious opportunity could arise: if Macron wins the elections, he has the opportunity to promote enhanced cooperation between France, Germany, Italy and Spain, to which numerous other countries would be added quickly. This would overcome the obstacle of unanimity to finally take a decisive step towards a common policy. It is not in fact obligatory to go forward all together, as happened for the Euro ».
According to Prodi, the increase in military spending, on which the majority in Italy is divided, must always be looked at from the European perspective: “We increase spending, as expected, but we decide to do so in a common context, that is, European, otherwise you spend more without having any effect. The division in the government, on the other hand, seemed to me only a question of identity of the political forces, which was resolved quickly. As for the debate on pacifism and the responsibilities of the ongoing war, there is no confusion. I have always been and remain loyal to the Atlantic Alliance, but in 2008, together with France and Germany, I voted against Bush’s proposal to immediately admit Ukraine to NATO. However, this cannot overshadow the fact that there has been an invasion and that Ukraine must be helped and supported. Even militarily. But the dialogue between the great powers must remain, and now I see little of it ».
But, he concludes, “I still continue to believe that only the agreement between the United States and China can put an end to the tragedy of the war in progress”.
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