“Russia will strengthen its western borders if Sweden and Finland join NATO.” There are always instrumental, exaggerated, bellicose words from Moscow’s leaders regarding its European neighbors. This time it was the vice-president of the Security Council of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, who reiterated the usual, infamous, Kremlin narrative that an approach of the Scandinavian countries to the Atlantic Alliance is seen as a threat that requires an aggressive response. “It will no longer be possible to speak – added Medvedev – of nuclear-free status for the Baltic, the balance will have to be restored”.
The accession to NATO of the two Scandinavian countries, which historically seek to coordinate their defense operations, would represent a watershed in the history of the Alliance and would change the European security landscape.
Paradoxically, Vladimir Putin would get exactly the opposite of what he wanted and sought with the senseless aggression of Ukraine. “Instead of crushing Ukrainian nationalism, he strengthened it. Instead of undermining the transatlantic alliance, he solidified it. Instead of dividing NATO and blocking its growth, it united it, ”writes the New York Times.
The hypothesis of Sweden and Finland joining the Atlantic Alliance has become more concrete day by day in the last seven weeks. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said last week that Finland and Sweden “could easily join”, noting that both meet NATO standards in terms of interoperability of military operations.
However, it could take up to a year before the two countries obtain formal membership of NATO, and indeed it is not so obvious that the process will be completed: the application must be approved by all NATO members, including it is the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán who may have several hesitations in giving his approval.
The Finnish government led by Sanna Marin on Wednesday presented the White Paper to Parliament that will form the basis for discussions on joining NATO. “If Finland and Sweden became NATO members, the threshold for the use of military force in the Baltic Sea region would increase, which would strengthen the region’s long-term stability,” the document reads.
The idea is to submit the official application before the NATO summit in Madrid (29 and 30 June). Helsinki will make its decision in the coming weeks.
Foreign Policy’s Michael Hirsh says “Finland may be in the process of dramatically tipping the balance and handing Putin his biggest defeat ever.”
Until recently Finland could be defined as a country essentially not interested in joining NATO, it had relatively good relations with Russia – there was a necessary dialogue between the countries, as said by Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen. And the positions of the main political parties reflected this condition.
In the last few weeks, everything has changed from one side of the political spectrum to the other. One after another, the five (center-left) government parties, traditionally opposed to joining the Atlantic Alliance, have changed their minds. And so did the far right of the True Finns, now pro-NATO. Annika Saarikko, Minister of Finance and leader of the Finnish Center Party, announced last weekend the change in the position of her party: «Finland’s idea of security changed in the early hours of February 24, when Russia launched the his attack “.
Sweden should follow in Finland’s footsteps, but should be more cautious. The prime minister, Magdalena Andersson, is expected to encounter greater resistance among the social democrats in her country.
On the other hand, Finland has different urgencies than Sweden: sharing the longest European border with Russia, over 1,340 kilometers, Helsinki is afraid of being the next target of the Kremlin.
But not only. After the declarations on the application for NATO membership, Finland is also afraid of being subjected to retaliation as the process comes to an end. For this reason, some government officials have asked for temporary protection. “I think we could see a period of hybrid raids. But I don’t want to speculate. The Russians have said they will react, somehow. And I think they will invest more military forces in this part of Europe, on the western flank, ”Antti Kaikkonen, the Finnish defense minister, told Repubblica yesterday.
In the meantime, Helsinki is preparing for eventual Russian provocations by leveraging its army, which has a fighting capacity of 280,000 soldiers plus 900,000 reservists. In addition, Finland bought 64 F-35 jets last year and invested 2.9 billion more in defense this year.
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The security situation in Europe has changed fundamentally following Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
PM @MarinSanna discussed with @SwedishPM how to strengthen the security of Finland and Sweden in the changed security environment.
More: https: //t.co/97hsMl5H8r pic.twitter.com/DyRwbF1yQ5
– Finnish Government (@FinGovernment) April 13, 2022
For years, since the end of the Cold War, the debate on NATO membership had disappeared from the Finnish political news. Quite simply, citizens did not care, it was not perceived as a priority, nor as a concern. And politics had put it away in the attic.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine refocused attention on new security needs. Several national polls reveal that 60% of Finns are in favor of joining NATO, a figure that has doubled compared to two months ago. Another poll found that only six of Finland’s 200 MPs would oppose joining the Alliance.
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