«It appears that Russia is unable to pay its debt in dollars, but is forced to pay it in rubles. And that almost leads to a default. It is the concrete demonstration that our sanctions are true and effective ». Johannes Hahn, EU budget commissioner, speaking with a group of European media including La Stampa, defends the restrictive measures adopted by the Union to hit Moscow and opens up the possibility of extending them to oil. But contrary to what Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans says, he sees a gas embargo more difficult.
“The important thing is to maintain unity among the member states,” he says. The fifth package of sanctions, which only includes a stop to coal, “is about to be finalized and at the moment I do not see the possibility of including gas because it is blocked by many governments. I believe instead that oil is possible simply because it is delivered in a different way than gas, which makes supplies more flexible: oil comes mainly by ship, while gas comes through pipelines ».
Meanwhile, Europe too is paying for the economic consequences of the conflict, he admits. “We have to manage the crisis linked to Covid, the energy crisis, the reception of refugees, the food crisis, especially for neighboring countries. And we still don’t know how much money will be needed for the reconstruction of Ukraine. The EU budget cannot meet all the needs of this crisis, it is worth just over 1% of GDP. To be effective, new common initiatives are needed, something new must be put together. Even if it is still difficult to quantify the real needs ».
A new plan in the wake of the Next Generation Eu? “No, I’m not talking about that,” Hahn replies. “We need to distinguish between what the Member States need and what Ukraine needs. For Kiev I am thinking of a new Marshall Plan. That of the second post-war period was essentially composed of loans, also linked to the re-establishment of democracy in Europe. We must help Ukraine recover quickly, not in 10-15 years, and this could lead to a more rapid rapprochement with the European Union. But a global effort is needed, not just ours ».
To help the Member States, however, “the current Next Generation Eu is still sufficient. Let’s look at the loans: out of 380 billion, only 170 have been requested. There is no shortage of resources ». And for countries like Italy that have exhausted their entire portion of loans, a redistribution of quotas will be possible. “In principle, every state has the right to borrow up to 6.8% of its GDP,” says Hahn. “If everyone did it, it would take a thousand billion, while we have only 380 billion available. I believe, however, that it will be enough because many countries, such as Germany, have said they will not ask for them. But I am sure that by 2023 others will do it because our market conditions are very favorable ».
In addition, “States can reprogram cohesion funds, for example for the reception of refugees”. For the Next Generation Eu, «for now we have raised 100 billion out of 800 as the States are now starting to ask for payments. To those who have already begun to ask for a Next Generation EU 2.0 I say: we must first focus on the implementation of the current plan. Many will not like what I am saying, but for the moment there is enough money and you have to think about absorbing the ones that are already on the table. Every new idea must be accepted unanimously and to get there it is necessary to see the effects of its added value for each Member State. Some countries were reluctant about the Next Generation, then they were convinced, but now they are not ready to accept another one. To get there, you need to demonstrate the benefits, which must be visible. Not only in terms of recovery, but also in terms of resilience ».
Commissioner Hahn is also dealing with the dossier on the rule of law, after the announcement of the application of conditionality to Hungary linked to corruption. “Official notification will be given in the last week of April. After that, a procedure will begin which can take between six and nine months. If the answers are not satisfactory, we will be able to propose measures to the Council which must adopt them by qualified majority ». But why not Hungary and Poland not? “For Warsaw we have highlighted problems related to the independence of justice, but for now we have no evidence of a link between this and the use of funds from the EU budget”
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