In addition to the war in Ukraine, which, due to its geographical proximity and the atrocities committed, has overwhelmingly occupied the media scene, the international scene is traversed by numerous conflicts. Among these, the Yemeni one, which has been going on for seven years, is undoubtedly one of the most dramatic from both a humanitarian and an economic point of view.

On April 3, coinciding with the first day of Ramadan, a temporary truce of two months was reached.

The agreement, announced by the UN, is the result of three intense days of talks between the parties held in Riyadh where, in addition to the truce, the possibility was agreed for supply ships to be able to deliver fuel in the ports of Hudaydah and for flights commercial to operate in and out of Sanaa airport, as long as the destinations are predetermined and remain within the regional scope.

The truce mediated by the United Nations is the result of the intensification of the activity carried out by US diplomacy and comes at a time when the “oil diplomacy” is underway at the same time – to borrow Federico Fubini’s comment that appeared on April 3 in Corriere della Sera – triggered by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

The Ukrainian escalation has placed Iran in a position of strength that allows it to determine the supply of crude oil on world markets on which the price also depends, which, if not calmed, as Fubini points out, would risk. to completely undermine Biden’s mid-term elections.

From this it is easy to understand that the acceleration impressed on the nuclear agreement, with the meetings on the JCPOA, aims to obtain as a counter-game the increase in the market of Iranian crude oil barrels. Furthermore, it should be added that a negotiating table has been underway for months between Saudi Arabia and Iran aimed at restoring regional structures starting precisely from the issue of Iranian nuclear power and the Yemeni war.

The latter, in particular, represents the major stumbling block that has hitherto prevented the parties from reaching a rapprochement.

This distance is substantially dictated by different strategic needs since while Theran aims to expand its influence in the Gulf area, Riyadh is driven by a desire to retain its leadership, but also to acquire greater degrees of strategic autonomy with respect to the States. United that can also facilitate dialogue with Iran on the main focuses of the area.

At the end of March, a few days before the truce was reached, the Houthis, one of the parties to the Yemeni conflict, launched missiles in Jeddah by means of drones, hitting the Aramco site located near both the Abdulaziz airport and the motor racing circuit.

It was not an isolated attack. A water storage and distribution center belonging to the National Water Company had previously been hit in Samtah, near the Yemeni borders, and at the same time, the Royal Saudi Defense Forces (RSADF) had intercepted and destroyed armed drones in the near the southern borders with Yemen, where attacks are repeated frequently.

The attack on Jeddah, in addition to impacting oil prices, already conditioned by the Ukrainian conflict, came just as negotiations were underway in Vienna between the promoter states of the Jcpoa and Iran which, within this context , plays a leading role due to its close proximity to the Houthis.

The latter, in fact, although not belonging to the axis of resistance, nevertheless receive important support from Iran, both in economic and military terms, which is allowing them to proceed in the conflict.

Given the coincidence in time and the oil site hit, it is not strange to assume that the action was to be interpreted as a warning to the negotiators in Vienna.

Furthermore, the military presence of the United Arab Emirates in Yemen should not be forgotten.

This presence highlights the importance of the control of Yemeni territorial waters and the Babel-Mandeb strait which represent a fundamental passage of the maritime routes that head towards the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, and of fifteen international submarine cables.

Therefore, the control of this passage, which will become increasingly strategic in the years to come, assumes a value far greater than the hundreds of billions of dollars spent on armaments in the last seven years and already partially amortized.

Abu Dhabi, in fact, as Cinzia Bianco points out on Limes, thanks to the advice of high-caliber strategists, such as the former MI6 executive Will Tricks, has already been able to settle in the country’s strategic places of interest.

These include the port city of Mocha, Mukalla airport, the port of Aden, as well as the island of Socotra in the Indian Ocean.

It should be noted, however, that the latter, due to its strategic importance, assumes hegemonic connotations that come into conflict with the posture of Saudi Arabia, which is also the leader of the military coalition engaged in Yemen, mostly concentrated in the defense of the northern border. and in counterbalancing Iranian military influence.

Faced with these scenarios, it can therefore be imagined that in the new geopolitical context being defined, the Yemeni truce can be interpreted as a point of de-escalation among the players in the field.

Furthermore, from the point of view of safety, this situation constitutes an important element within an area, such as that of the Red Sea and the Babel Mandeb strait, which is so strategic due to the copious flows of goods that from the East go to the Mediterranean ports. and European, as it is fragile due to the numerous conflicts and weak states present on its coasts.

Think also of the presence of groups affiliated with the Al-Qaeda network and radical Islamist organizations that are gaining more and more strength in the Sinai area, to the point of controlling part of the territory. Such chokepointcrossed by 40% of our commercial exchange with Asia, is of high strategic value for the economic security of our country and our businesses.

In fact, this would justify our military base, together with that of the major powers, in Djibouti.

It is therefore objective that both areas of this sea, the south and the north, due to their privileged geographical position, can easily induce these groups to plan military actions aimed at blocking Suez and therefore the entire basin of commercial traffic between Mediterranean and Indian Ocean.

If the truce in Yemen could represent an important signal, it is however necessary not to lose sight of the safety of the rest of the area in question, taking into account that stability could also be threatened by new food crises consequent to the invasion of Ukraine by the Russia. Suffice it to say that Egypt and Yemen depend respectively for 80% and 50% on imports of Russian and Ukrainian wheat.

Therefore, this represents an equally urgent and at the same time arduous challenge in which Italy must be able to identify the right interlocutors among those interested in building a united Mediterranean and a Near East, which ensures peace and economic prosperity. , on which the safety of our companies also depends.

The author is a member of the Think Tank Secursat

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Philip Owell

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